Is It Worth Converting RMB to USD for Spending in China?
TL;DR: Based on Google’s exchange rate trends prior to February 2026, with a 3% cashback US credit card, converting RMB to USD and spending within 5 months is profitable and can yield arbitrage gains.
Analysis
My Setup
- US credit card with 3% cashback
- Fee-free international USD transfers
Costs
- Exchange rate fluctuation: the USD has been on a sustained decline
- Exchange rate spread: the rate when converting currencies or making foreign currency transactions is not the best available rate
- International transfer fees: negligible, as I have a fee-free channel
- US card annual fee: $95, but the sign-up bonus awarded points worth at least $1,250, so effectively negligible
- Foreign transaction fee (FTF): most travel cards, including the CSP, have no FTF — negligible
- Domestic transaction fees: WeChat Pay and Alipay waive fees for transactions under ¥200; swiping the US card directly at a POS terminal should also be fee-free
Fixed Exchange Rate Analysis
Assume a Google rate of 6.90, a CNY-to-USD conversion rate of 6.92, and a foreign currency transaction rate of 6.89 (e.g., via WeChat Pay). Looking only at the 3% cashback from using the US card for dining: if I convert ¥1,000 to USD and spend it all on meals, my total comes out to $1000 \div 6.92 \times 1.03 \times 6.89 = 1025.53$ — a net gain.
Dynamic Exchange Rate Analysis
With a CNY-to-USD conversion rate of 6.92 and 3% cashback, the math shows that a foreign currency transaction rate above 6.719 (or 6.785 for 2% cashback) is needed to break even.
Based on USD trends, spending within 1 month of conversion is still profitable (rate: $6.92 \times 99.08\% = 6.85 > 6.719$).
However, spending at the six-month mark results in a loss ($6.92\times96.61\%=6.685<6.719$).
Finally, based on a curve fit of Google’s exchange rate data (chart above), holding USD for around 5 months after conversion becomes unprofitable.
Conclusion
As long as you spend the USD fairly quickly, it works out fine. Based on Google’s exchange rate trends prior to February 2026, with a 3% cashback US credit card, converting RMB to USD and spending within 5 months is profitable and can yield arbitrage gains.